María Corina Machado’s Polymarket Odds Rose Sharply Pre-Announcement
Controversy arose around the Nobel Peace Prize after a surge of last-minute wagers on the prediction market Polymarket suggested a potential information leak. Suspicious trading activity spiked the odds for the eventual winner just hours before the official announcement. This incident has prompted an investigation by the Norwegian Nobel Institute into possible insider trading.
Venezuelan Leader’s Odds Explode Pre-Announcement
The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for her work against “communist tyrant Nicolas Maduro.” Machado’s victory was unexpected. Approximately 12 hours before the announcement, her odds on the crypto-based Polymarket platform stood at only 5 percent.
A flurry of intense buying abruptly shifted the market. An account named “6741,” created specifically for the purpose, began a massive purchase of Machado contracts.
This buying spree, targeting a low-volume market, boosted Machado’s winning probability from 5% to about 70%. The trader, “6741,” secured profits exceeding $50,000 from these bets. Other traders followed the momentum, including one named “GayPride” who made over $85,000.
Polymarket itself later posted on social media that it “had the news over 12 hours before its announcement,” touting the platform’s forecasting ability. This statement fueled speculation that leaked information, not just superior prediction, was the driver.
Nobel Institute Launches Leak Investigation
The Norwegian Nobel Institute is taking the trading activity very seriously and has launched an official probe. Erik Aasheim, a spokesperson for the Institute, confirmed they had noticed the activity. “We will investigate whether this means that someone has unlawfully obtained information from us,” Aasheim stated.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, called the situation a potential crime. “It looks like we have been victimized by a criminal who wants to make money on our information,” he said. Harpviken stressed the importance of secrecy to the prize’s integrity and stated they would “look closely at this.” The director added that while some leaks occurred about 15 years ago, he was unaware of a recent similar controversy involving the Peace Prize.
Regulatory Status of Prediction Markets
The incident highlights a regulatory gray area for offshore platforms like Polymarket. The platform does not explicitly prohibit insider trading and is not subject to U.S. laws that ban it on American stock markets. Polymarket operates as an unregulated, foreign market, officially inaccessible to U.S. residents.
Therefore, even if traders acted on leaked Nobel information, it remains unclear whether the transactions would be deemed illegal. This contrasts with regulated U.S. platforms, such as Kalshi, which maintain clear policies against insider trading.
Polymarket, founded in 2020, has grown in profile and recently saw a major investment by Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange. The company’s valuation of $8 billion is part of an effort to expand its presence, making the current controversy a point of scrutiny regarding market integrity.
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