Thanksgiving Upsets Trigger Circa Grandissimo Payout and Survivor Collapse
NFL underdogs controlled the Thanksgiving and Black Friday schedule in 2025, causing chaos in major handicapping contests. The results eliminated the final contestants in the high-stakes Circa Grandissimo and removed nearly 95% of the field from the standard Circa Survivor. The holiday slate concluded one tournament instantly and drastically altered the math for the other.
Grandissimo Ends in a Six-Way Split
The inaugural Circa Grandissimo, which required a $100,000 entry fee, officially concluded on Black Friday. The contest featured a guaranteed prize pool of $6.9 million.
Heading into Week 13, only six entries remained active. By the end of the Friday games, the field was empty.
The six finalists split their selections between two heavy favorites. Three entries selected the Baltimore Ravens, who lost to the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night.
The remaining three entries backed the Philadelphia Eagles, who fell to the Chicago Bears on Friday.
Contest rules dictate that if all remaining players are eliminated in the same week, they split the pot. Consequently, the six failed entries divided the $6.9 million prize equally.
Each participant cashed out $1.15 million. Despite losing their Week 13 selections, these players secured an 11.5x return on their initial buy-in.
Main Survivor Field Decimated
The standard Circa Survivor contest, holding an $18.7 million prize pool, suffered a mass casualty event. The competition began the week with 898 active entries.
Following the Friday games, only 49 entries remained alive. This represents an elimination rate of nearly 95% in less than 48 hours.
The destruction stemmed from a sweep by underdogs in all four holiday matchups: the Packers, Cowboys, Bengals, and Bears all won outright.
The combined moneyline odds for this four-team parlay would have been roughly +7765. The majority of the field fell into two specific traps:
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Philadelphia Eagles: 489 entries (54.3% of the field) were eliminated when the Eagles lost.
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Baltimore Ravens: 269 entries (29.9%) were knocked out by the Bengals’ victory.
Conversely, the Chicago Bears proved to be the week’s most valuable selection. Only 28 entries (3.1%) backed Chicago, allowing those players to advance.
The mass elimination reshaped the financial landscape for the survivors. The implied value of each remaining ticket skyrocketed from roughly $20,800 to $381,998.
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