CFTC Sidesteps Tribal Pleas on Prediction Markets, InGame Reports

Tribes Left Hanging

Eight tribal entities took their shot at convincing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to halt sports event contracts on prediction markets like Kalshi, but walked away empty-handed, Jill R. Dorson from InGame reported.

A source told InGame, “What I took from that whole session is that [Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham] ain’t doing anything.”

On May 30, 2025, representatives from groups like the California Nations Indian Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association joined a 45-minute CFTC call, hoping to protect gaming exclusivity under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.

Each got five minutes to argue that platforms like Kalshi, offering sports contracts nationwide, violate tribal-state compacts. A source said the contracts “upends and devalues IGRA, tribal sovereignty, and state’s 10th Amendment rights.” But Pham, a lame-duck chair, offered no action, saying, “I’m happy to talk to you, but I am out the door,” per InGame.

CFTC’s Stance

Kalshi’s sports contracts, legal in all 50 states under CFTC oversight, bypass state betting laws and tribal exclusivity. Federal judges in Nevada and New Jersey backed Kalshi’s claim that these are derivatives, not gambling, granting injunctions against state bans.

Tribes warn this could gut casino jobs and revenue funding essential services. “Prediction markets have a free ticket to ride if they call it a prediction contract,” a source told InGame, calling the CFTC’s inaction “embarrassing.”

Pham told tribes the CFTC has never blocked a contract in 50 years, as Designated Contract Markets like Kalshi self-certify offerings.

With Pham and three commissioners leaving by July 2025, and Trump’s nominee Brian Quintenz, a Kalshi board member, awaiting confirmation, tribes see little hope.

“Tribal leaders thought the CFTC would be a safeguard,” a source said, but got, “No, this was not our mission.”