CFTC’s Prediction Markets Roundtable Canceled: What’s Next for the Industry?

A Messy Situation Gets Messier

Just when it seemed like the drama around prediction markets couldn’t get any wilder, the CFTC decided to stir the pot.

The roundtable was supposed to be a big deal, a chance to get a clear read on what’s next for sports betting and how platforms like Kalshi or Crypto.com might fit into the picture. Now, it’s not happening, leaving everyone in the industry scratching their heads.

Things are getting intense. Kalshi, a key player in prediction markets, has racked up six cease-and-desist letters from states: Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, Ohio, Illinois, and Montana.

They’re not backing down, though, taking the fight to court in Nevada, New Jersey, and most recently Maryland. Their argument? Their products are regulated federally by the CFTC, so states should butt out.

In Nevada, Kalshi scored a preliminary injunction, but legal experts like Daniel Wallach and Andrew Kim point out that U.S. District Court Judge Andrew Gordon’s ruling isn’t rock-solid.

That small win in Nevada was a big deal for Kalshi, giving them ammo for their cases in New Jersey and Maryland, where rulings are still pending. The real key, though, was supposed to be the CFTC’s stance. Everyone hoped the roundtable would shed light on that, but all we’ve got now are whispers about some CFTC folks being cozy with Kalshi and prediction platforms.

Was the Roundtable Ever Real?

Let’s be clear: April 30 was never officially confirmed by the CFTC. It was a date floated by Dustin Gouker. As the day got closer, doubts piled up, especially since, even a week out, the CFTC hadn’t said a peep about the event.

Still, this wasn’t some ghost roundtable. The buzz around it prompted a bunch of groups and regulators to send their takes to the CFTC. Tennessee, for example, held off on targeting Kalshi directly and instead sent a cautious letter about prediction markets to the CFTC.

Back in February, the American Gaming Association was already angling for a seat at the table. Since then, a ton of other big names reached out to the CFTC to weigh in, including:

• California Nations Indian Gaming Association
• Indian Gaming Association
• National Council on Problem Gambling
• Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association
• MLB

Heavy hitters like Congresswoman Dina Titus and Ryan M. Rodenberg also had plenty to say about where the industry’s headed. Hopefully, everyone who was planning to show up booked refundable flights. Gouker says some folks had already made travel plans.

What’s Next? A Regulatory Black Hole

Here’s the problem: the CFTC didn’t say why they canceled the roundtable or when (or if) it’ll be rescheduled. We’re stuck in a regulatory limbo.

Kalshi’s leaning hard on CFTC regulations in its court battles, but the CFTC itself is still nowhere near dropping a final verdict. For now, the industry’s left hanging, with more questions than answers.