CFTC’s Roundtable on Prediction Markets to Stream Live
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is gearing up for a long-awaited roundtable on prediction markets. Dan Bernstein, a Sportico reporter, shared on X that this public event, likely a forum with multiple panels, will stream live, drawing a big crowd eager to see how it shapes the U.S. sports betting industry.
A Big Moment for Betting
This forum, hosted at CFTC’s Washington, D.C., headquarters, will feature a wide range of voices, from tribal gaming groups to fintech players, per Bernstein’s X post.
It’s a critical moment, as prediction markets like Kalsh are shaking up the betting landscape. Kalshi’s $500 million in March Madness trades shows its growing clout.
With Kalshi’s recent Nevada partial court win and its push into self-certified markets, the stakes are sky-high.
Why It Matters
Kalshi’s Nevada victory, where a federal judge granted a preliminary injunction against a cease-and-desist order, lets it offer sports contracts nationwide without state gambling licenses.
These self-certified markets, covering NBA playoffs to college football, bypass state taxes and rules.
The CFTC’s roundtable will dig into whether these contracts are financial derivatives or gambling, a debate fueled by 29 stakeholder submissions, including tribal groups claiming they violate sovereignty.
The American Gaming Association, representing DraftKings and FanDuel, argues prediction markets dodge consumer protections and tribal rights.
Nevada, New Jersey, and four other states issued cease-and-desists, but Kalshi’s lawsuits, backed by Trump ties like advisor Donald Trump Jr., keep it rolling.
Bernstein notes sportsbooks face a tricky spot: prediction markets threaten their 70% market share, but clear rules could let them launch their own.
What to Watch For
The roundtable’s panels will likely cover responsible gaming, market integrity, and state versus federal oversight. Kalshi’s user protections, like deposit caps, aim to match sportsbooks’ tools, but critics, including MLB, say they’re too lax.
Tribal gaming groups, a key focus for Bernstein, will push for state control to protect their $100 million California betting revenue. The CFTC’s stance, under acting chair Caroline Pham, leans pro-innovation, but no final policy is set.
Viewers can check the CFTC’s website for live stream details closer to April 30. A hands-off approach, hinted by Trump’s CFTC nominee Brian Quintenz, a Kalshi board member, might greenlight platforms like Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com,
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