DOJ Drops Polymarket Probe
The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have ended their investigations into Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, with no charges filed.
Investigations and FBI Raid
Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020, lets users bet on real-world events like elections using blockchain-based contracts.
In 2022, it settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million, agreeing to block U.S. users after offering unregistered event-based options. Despite this, regulators suspected Polymarket still allowed American bets via workarounds like VPNs, prompting DOJ and CFTC probes.
Tensions peaked in November 2024, when FBI agents raided Coplan’s Manhattan penthouse, seizing his phone and computers. Coplan called it a “last-ditch effort” by the Biden administration, posting on X, “It’s discouraging that the current administration would seek a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”
No charges followed, and on July 15, 2025, Coplan announced, “After cooperating and engaging, we’ve been cleared of any wrongdoing. Justice prevailed.”
Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Pivot
The closure aligns with the Trump administration’s push to ease crypto regulations. Unlike the Biden era’s tough stance, Trump’s team dropped the probes, reflecting a trend of reversing actions against digital asset firms.
In May 2025, the CFTC also withdrew an appeal against a ruling allowing Kalshi, Polymarket’s rival, to offer election bets. Brian Quintenz, a former CFTC commissioner and Kalshi board member, is set to lead the CFTC, hinting at a softer approach to prediction markets. Quintenz has suggested sports betting contracts are legal under the Commodity Exchange Act, boosting Polymarket’s prospects.
With Congress eyeing crypto-friendly laws during “Crypto Week,” the regulatory climate is warming for platforms like Polymarket.
Polymarket saw $3.6 billion in bets on the 2024 election, with $2.6 billion in November alone, per NBC and Bloomberg. Backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and partnered with Elon Musk’s X and xAI for real-time forecasts, the platform is eyeing a $200 million funding round.
Hiring Trump advisor David Urban as its first lobbyist shows active efforts to navigate U.S. regulations. Coplan, who thanked Trump for a White House crypto summit invite, wrote, “This admin’s commitment to collaboration with American innovators is revitalizing the American dream.” Polymarket may seek CFTC registration or acquire a licensed entity to re-enter the U.S. legally.
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