DraftKings Records Largest-Ever Single-Game Loss After Bills’ Comeback Against Ravens
DraftKings absorbed what analysts called the “single-worst game outcome ever” for the company following the Buffalo Bills’ dramatic Week 1 win over the Baltimore Ravens. The result, first reported by Covers, is the biggest single-game loss since DraftKings launched in the U.S. market in 2018.
How the Game Impacted DraftKings
The Bills staged a stunning comeback on Sunday Night Football. Trailing by 15 points late, Buffalo scored 22 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 41–40.
At one stage, the Bills were listed as +2000 underdogs on ESPN BET, making their turnaround especially costly for sportsbooks.
DraftKings’ exposure grew as bettors placed heavy moneyline wagers on Buffalo before and during the game. According to analysts, players won bets on 28 of the 30 most popular markets for the matchup.
That combination drove what DraftKings executives and outside research firms have described as an unprecedented hit.
Player Props and Totals Drive Losses
In addition to the moneyline, bettors cashed in on multiple player prop markets:
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Derrick Henry rushed for 169 yards, comfortably clearing his line.
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Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Zay Flowers all scored touchdowns at any time, hitting another series of popular wagers.
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Both Allen and Jackson passed for over 200 yards, triggering more payouts.
The high-scoring game also cleared the pregame total of 51.5 points and produced a string of winning live wagers on alternate totals.
Impact on Financial Outlook
Citizens Equity Research noted the loss will weigh on DraftKings’ third-quarter results. The company’s estimated EBITDA now tracks below the consensus expectation of $51 million, with two NFL weekends remaining in the quarter.
Jordan Bender, analyst at Citizens, called the Bills-Ravens contest “the single-worst game outcome ever for the company,” citing the combination of live betting activity and successful props. He added that, beyond this result, Weeks 1 and 2 were “fine” and aligned with expectations.
Despite the setback, DraftKings leadership emphasized stability across its broader business. CEO Jason Robins said engagement, retention, acquisition, in-play products, and promotional spending are all performing in line with or above projections at the start of the season.
The company also pointed to strength in its parlay products, which continue to deliver higher-than-expected hold rates. DraftKings maintains confidence in its pricing model, which it says is consistent with industry standards.
Citizens maintained its “Market Outperform” rating on DraftKings shares and a $54 price target, based on projected EBITDA and free cash flow through 2027. Still, analysts warned investors may continue to question pricing around advanced bets and player props until several weeks of stronger-than-expected results arrive.
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