NFL Season Win Totals: How to Bet the Over/Under

This type of bet covers the team’s entire 17-game regular season schedule and typically uses -110 odds (or “juice”). This means you risk $\$110$ to win a $\$100$ profit. The line settles after the final Week 18 game. Historically, these bets hit the Over or Under about 50% of the time, making deep research on schedules and rosters essential for success.

Understanding the Mechanics of Win Totals

Oddsmakers set win totals based on factors like the team’s past performance, offseason roster changes, strength of schedule, and injury projections. They use half-numbers to ensure a clear winner for the bet.

How the Over/Under Works

• The Line: The total is usually expressed as a number ending in .5, such as 10.5.
• Betting the Over: You bet the team will win more than 10.5 games (i.e., 11, 12, or more victories).
• Betting the Under: You bet the team will win less than 10.5 games (i.e., 10, 9, or fewer victories).
• The Push: Win totals rarely push because of the half-point (.5). If a line were set at a whole number (e.g., 9 wins), a 9-8 finish would result in a push, and all bets would be refunded.

Example Win Total Wager

Imagine the Detroit Lions line is 10.5 wins with odds of -110 for both the Over and the Under.

How to Place a Win Totals Bet

You can place win totals bets on any legal U.S. sports betting app, such as DraftKings or FanDuel, if you are located in a legal state and are 21 years or older.

1. Sign Up and Deposit: Create an account and deposit funds (often a $\$10$ minimum).
2. Navigate to Futures: Open the NFL section on the app. Look for the “Futures” tab or section, then find “Season Win Totals.”
3. Select Team and Wager: Scroll through the teams and choose a team, then select Over or Under on their win line.
4. Enter Stake: Enter your bet amount (e.g., $\$110$).
5. Confirm: Confirm the wager. The sportsbook will settle the bet immediately after the team plays its final regular-season game in Week 18.

Top Strategies for Betting Win Totals

Successful win totals betting requires research that goes beyond simple fandom. These strategies help bettors find value, especially early in the year.

1. Identify Preseason Value

The lines set before training camp (May to August) often offer the best value. Oddsmakers might overestimate the top contenders or underestimate teams with new coaches or developing quarterbacks.

• Look for Undervalued Teams: Bet the Over on mid-tier teams (e.g., those lined at 8.5 or 9.5 wins) that you believe have improved. These teams often carry less public betting interest.
• Avoid Overpriced Favorites: Lines on heavy favorites (11.5+ wins) rarely offer great value.

2. Analyze the Schedule Strength

A team’s schedule is a huge factor in their final record. A seemingly small difference in schedule difficulty can swing one or two games.

• Soft Schedule: Favor the Over for teams facing a division or conference (e.g., NFC South) with low average win totals.
• Tough Schedule: Consider the Under for teams with a brutal slate, such as those that must play the AFC North and the AFC West in the same season.

3. Monitor Roster and Injury Updates

The health and makeup of a team are critical for a season-long wager.

• Quarterback Health: A long-term injury to an elite quarterback can quickly drop a team’s expected win total by 20% or more. This is a clear reason to bet the Under mid-season if an injury occurs.
• Offseason Moves: Look for teams that significantly upgraded their offensive line or defense. These additions create a solid foundation for betting the Over.

4. Shop the Lines

Sportsbooks often have slightly different win totals or odds.

• Example: One book might list a team’s total at 10.5 (-115), while another lists it at 10.5 (-105). Always place the bet at the book with the better odds (the lower negative number). This 1-2% edge adds up over time.

When is the Best Time to Bet?

The consensus among sharp bettors is to place most wagers (around 60%) in the preseason to capture the best initial value. They use the remaining 40% of their wagers later in the season for adjustments based on team performance.