PredictIt Reboots with Expanded Political Betting
PredictIt, a political prediction market, secured a new deal with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in July. The platform’s “reinvention” lifts old limits, boosts betting caps, and positions it as a top player in real-money forecasting.
New CFTC Deal
PredictIt’s revised CFTC agreement frees it from restrictive rules that once limited its reach. Previously capped at 5,000 traders per event and $850 per bet, the platform now allows unlimited participants and raises the betting limit to $3,500 per contract.
CEO David Mason said the new cap “provides a balance” between active participation and preventing wealthy players from skewing odds.
The deal follows legal wins, including a 2023 Fifth Circuit ruling that forced the CFTC to follow formal procedures before shutting down platforms and a 2024 D.C. Circuit decision rejecting the CFTC’s attempt to block election bets.
Strategic Edge in Political Betting
PredictIt’s non-profit structure and focus on educational outcomes set it apart from profit-driven rivals. By aligning bet limits with federal campaign donation caps, it avoids accusations of being a gambling platform, a label the CFTC has struggled to legally justify.
The platform’s website touts its “official relaunch” as “more than just a comeback” but a “reinvention” of real-money prediction markets.
It now lists 25 contracts, covering 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential nominations, with trading described as “quite lively.”
Despite its gains, PredictIt faces uncertainties. The Kalshi case’s outcome and election-year volatility could shift regulatory priorities. Still, the platform’s first-mover advantage in political betting, backed by legal precedents, positions it as a model for responsible forecasting.
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